Brightview Senior Living was founded in 1999, built on the idea that a great place to work is a great place to live. Today Brightview builds, owns, and operates 45 senior living communities in eight states along the East Coast: Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Virginia. Brightview communities offer residential apartments for active seniors who are independent and those seniors who require varying degrees of assistance due to Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia.

“Few things will impact capital allocation decisions – and thereby the long-term value of your company – more than how effectively you navigate the global energy transition in the years ahead.”  - Larry Fink, Blackstone CEO Letter 2022

On behalf of the team at 5, I am pleased to forward our market letter for the fourth quarter of 2021. This letter continues our focus on the conflict between regulations that promote low carbon energy production, and the strain that this energy transition puts on utility systems that must: (i) accommodate intermittent energy sources, and (ii) ensure reliable electric supply at a reasonable cost. California and Europe have taken aggressive regulatory action to reduce carbon emissions. Perhaps because of their early mover status, these markets are also good examples of the challenge faced by regulators overseeing the energy transition.

“If not me, then who? If not now, then when?” Ray Anderson, Founder of Interface.

Throughout the evolution of any great company, there are hallmark moments that define each new chapter. These experiences often serve as fuel for the company’s new trajectory and become a reference point for the team’s future work and ultimate impact. Our team experienced one of these catalyzing moments in mid-November during a screening of Beyond Zero that concluded with a live Q&A with the film’s writer and director, Nathan Havey.

Consumer Power Advocates (CPA) serves as a regulatory advocate for non-profit institutional organizations in New York. Launched at the onset of electricity deregulation by Luthin Associates, a leading energy advisory company acquired by 5 in 2019, CPA continues to advocate for its members and intervene in key energy legislation today.

In October we discussed heating oil in New York City and the potential liabilities purchasers may have in the future given the city’s established clean energy policy goals in the Climate Mobilization Act (CMA) and the state’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). As New York continues to focus on winter heating needs and the city's energy mix continues to evolve, the NYC district steam network, like fuel oil, may stand in the crosshairs of carbon policy in the years to come.

On behalf of the team at 5, I am pleased to forward our market letter for the third quarter of 2021. World leaders convened in Glasgow on October 31st to address international commitments to lower greenhouse gas emissions. The energy market welcomed these delegates with a complex set of conditions that frame the challenge posed by the transition to a clean energy economy. These include historically high natural gas prices and significant energy shortages in several markets that moved aggressively to decarbonize their electricity grids: UK, Germany, and California. At the same time, energy shortages in China may undercut decarbonization efforts of the world’s largest carbon emitter.

On October 31, the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (aka COP26) will kick off in Glasgow, Scotland. This event will mark what many energy and sustainability leaders consider to be an important escalation in the global fight to reduce pollution and implement measures to address the effects of climate change. There is one developing environmental commodity, carbon offset credits, that continues to gain traction and we are excited to help clients capitalize on this new sustainability opportunity.

Doesn’t the first cold front of fall always just feel so glorious? Texans will tell you that 85 degrees Fahrenheit never felt so good. After over four months of sweltering heat in Texas, with triple-digit heat index values as the rule rather than the exception, on Tuesday, September 21, 2021, a small shot of Arctic air made it all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast. Finally, Texans received some relief from the high humidity levels statewide and overnight low temperatures plunged into the 60s as far south as Brownsville. This front officially marks the end of the 4CP season, and of summertime in general, in Texas.

One of the most common questions clients ask when purchasing electricity or natural gas is, “How much money will this save me?” This was a reasonable question and for many years savings could be realized because energy prices had been trending lower. Figure 1 shows how the NYMEX has settled over the last 28 years. This chart shows that natural gas hit its peak in 2006 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and Rita where gas prices approached $14/Dth.

Illinois Passes Nation-Leading Climate and Equitable Jobs Act

On September 15, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed historic clean energy legislation, known as the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA). Among many things, the CEJA requires Illinois to achieve a 100% carbon-free power sector by 2045, becoming the first Midwestern state to commit to ending the use of fossil fuels.